Latest Monthly Assessment - The proportion of the United States in drought (as determined by the U.S. Drought Monitor [DM]) is roughly half of what it was at the beginning of the 2023-24 Water Year (Oct 1, 2023). Over 32 percent of the Nation was in drought at that time, compared to about 15 percent on the most recent DM (valid April 23, 2024). That percentage has been relatively stable since the last Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) release on March 31, 2024, but there have been significant changes in intensity and some changes in location since then. The last 4 weeks brought improvement to areas of drought in most of the Rockies and Intermountain West, the northern Plains, the northern half of the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes Region, and western New York. Deterioration has been noted primarily from Kansas and northern Oklahoma eastward across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas and into areas immediately adjacent to the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers' confluence. The Pacific Northwest and portions of south-central and west-central Texas also saw some deterioration over the past month.



Looking ahead through the end of May 2024, heavy rainfall from the last week of April into the second week of May should bring drought improvement or removal to drought areas in the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes region. Heavy rainfall early in the period is also expected to remove the remaining drought in northwestern Puerto Rico. In contrast, most drought areas from the High Plains westward to the Pacific Coast are expected to persist or intensify, except in a few patches across the highest elevations of Washington, western Montana, and northern Wyoming. Conditions in the drought areas covering portions of Deep South Texas and the southeastern half of Hawaii are also expected to persist or intensify. In addition, drought is expected to develop by the end of May across the central Florida Peninsula, where antecedent short-term moisture deficits exist and unusually hot and dry weather is anticipated for at least the first half of May. Drought development is also anticipated in some parts of Hawaii, southeastern Montana, the southern High Plains, and the southeastern Rockies adjacent to current drought areas.



Somewhat below-normal precipitation, including deficient snowpack, has been observed in southeasternmost Alaska for the past several months. Drought development is not anticipated by the end of May at this time, but the region will need to be monitored for signs of deterioration.



Forecaster: Rich Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: May 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion